Seven NFL teams finished with 30 sacks or less this season. Only one of those seven — the Buffalo Bills — finished the year with a winning record. The others all had six wins or less. The San Francisco 49ers were one of those six teams.
That’s my long-winded way of saying the Niners’ defense — and the team as a whole — was noticeably hampered by the lack of a serious pass rush this season. They were tied with the Miami Dolphins for fifth worst in the league with 30 quarterback takedowns, but that’s not the number that jumps off the paper.
Sure, the fact that the Niners have been near the bottom of the league in sacks each of the last three seasons is a bad thing, but more concerning is the fact that the team has not had a player record more than seven sacks on his own since the 2013 season. Elvis Dumervil was near that mark this season (6.5) as a situational pass rusher, but no one else had more than three.
Defensive coordinator Robert Saleh comes from the Pete Carroll coaching tree, and runs a similar defense to the Seattle Seahawks — a single high safety with a ton of cover 3 and press — with a few twists. In a perfect world, the Niners get pressure with four guys, drop the rest into coverage and smother offenses like Jacksonville — where Saleh was a linebacker’s coach before joining Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco.
The Niners have spent a first round selection on a defensive lineman in each of the last three drafts, and yet have still struggled to generate a semblance of a true pass rush, forcing them to blitz more than they’d like to apply pressure. But it would be wrong to say the trio of Arik Armstead, DeForest Buckner and Solomon Thomas have been disappointments.
Of the three, Armstead may land the closest to that assessment. He has only six sacks over his first three years, and hasn’t been able to stay healthy, landing on injured reserve in consecutive seasons. He might never turn into the dominant interior pass rusher the Niners need, and it would be unfair for the team to expect him to. He was never a sack artist at Oregon — he only had four sacks over three seasons — and I don’t think former general manager Trent Baalke expected him to grow into one. He was drafted to take up blocks and stuff the run as a defensive end in the 3-4. The Niners’ switch to the 4-3 has changed his role a bit.
He’s heading into the final guaranteed year of his rookie deal, and it’s likely the Niners will not pick up the fifth year of his contract this spring, making 2018 a “show me” season for him. Can he make a big jump in a contract year? Sure, anything is possible — Nick Foles led the Eagles to the Super Bowl, after all. But it could be risky for the Niners to bank on it.
Buckner might be the Niners’ best overall defender, and he is only going to get better over the next few seasons. His sack total this year (3.0) was disappointing, but he did finish among the league-leaders in quarterback hits, hurries and pressures. His brilliance in the interior is nice, but it doesn’t solve the Niners’ lack of explosiveness on the edges.
That’s where Thomas comes in. The Stanford product was up and down as a rookie — finishing with 34 solo tackles and only 3.0 sacks — but that doesn’t mean he won’t turn into a productive pass rusher in the near future. Since 2010, every edge rusher drafted in the top five picks — save for Dion Jordan, who had personal issues murk his future — improved in some shape or form from year one to two. Von Miller, Ezekiel Ansah, Khalil Mack, Jadeveon Clowney, Dante Fowler and Joey Bosa all made jumps after spending a full season in the NFL. That doesn’t mean Thomas is guaranteed to turn into a game-wrecker like those half-dozen stars, but it does mean he has a good chance to.
The Niners’ recent first round picks could eventually develop into a three-headed pass-rushing monster, but right now the roster feels bare of any difference makers. There is a handful of players set to hit the market this spring, but two really rise above the rest: Dallas’ DeMarcus Lawrence and Detroit’s Ansah. Among free agents, Lawrence and Ansah finished first (15) and second (12) in sacks.
The easy answer to the Niners’ pass rush problems would be to steal away one of these two beasts with their millions of dollars of cap space, but let me make the case of quantity over quality. Both the New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles made the Super Bowl without a single player recording double digit sacks. I’m not saying that having a dominant pass rusher like Chandler Jones or Ryan Kerrigan does not make a difference. What I am saying is that it is not impossible to generate steady pressure on a QB without a guy like Von Miller.
Philly had 12 guys record at least one sack, and four finished with five or more. The Pats had 16 players bring down the QB, and three of them had five or more. Having an army of guys to rotate through is sometimes better than having one or two that have to carry the load, especially in today’s hurry-up, throw-it-around NFL.
Lawrence and Ansah are most likely going to be hit with the franchise tag by their respective team, and if they don’t, they’ll demand a lucrative multi-year deal. If I’m General Manager John Lynch, I do not pay either one of those players like they’re Clay Matthews or Justin Houston. Both have struggled with injuries, and neither has had more than two good-to-great seasons. Tying up about $18 million of cap space for the next four years on one of those two players is a tough sell. Let’s not forget the Niners have to pay Jimmy Garoppolo a small fortune this offseason, and several solid young guys are set to be free agents after next season or in the near future.
That does not mean the Niners should not spend money on one, two or even three pass rushers this spring. Julius Peppers (11) and Adrian Clayborn (10) are the only other free agents that finished with double digit sacks, and both are solid vets. I would not be disappointed if the Niners decided to employ either one of them. Neither one really solves the team’s problems on their own, but together, and at the $4-5 million range, they’d be big pickups. Lamarr Houston and Connor Barwin are also both interesting, and neither one is going to ask for more than $4 million. In house, Cassius Marsh, who can do nothing else but rush the passer and play special teams, also played well down the stretch for the Niners.
Edge rusher is without a doubt an important position in the NFL. But signing an injury-prone free agent to a massive deal when your first round picks have not finished developing, seems like jumping the gun. Paying a combined $13 million for three veterans that could produce anywhere between 10-15 sacks all together, makes more sense than forking over a huge deal to one player. The Niners need help on the edges, and whether or not they go all-in on Lawrence or Ansah if they are available, will speak volumes on what they believe they have in Thomas, Buckner and Armstead.
Editor’s Note: In the weeks leading up to NFL free agency, Pajaronian Sports Editor Tony Nunez will dive into the Niners’ roster needs following their 6-10 season.
