Aside from the interior of the offensive line, defensive back might be San Francisco’s biggest need and most intriguing position heading into the spring. Without a doubt the Niners need another cornerback to play opposite of standout rookie Ahkello Witherspoon, and there are a handful of OK-to-good options that will most likely hit the open market come March. But I think the Niners’ situation at safety is more important and complex than their problem on the outside.
I can’t remember the last time San Francisco had this much talent and depth at the back end of its defense, and that’s a total compliment to general manager John Lynch. He not only found Adrian Colbert and Witherspoon in the later rounds of last year’s draft, but he also brought in nickel corner K’Waun Williams through free agency. The defensive coaching staff, too, deserves a ton of credit for turning them into NFL starters over the course of the season, and also squeezing the most out of Jaquiski Tartt — still the best name in football, if you ask me.
Before his injury, Tart was the No. 16 rated safety in the NFL, according to Pro Football Focus. Veteran Eric Reid was rated No. 31, and Colbert came in at No. 46. Obviously there are 64 starting safeties spots around the league, and the Niners have three that played like starters and another that is set to be paid like one in Jimmie Ward.
The team picked up the fifth-year option on Ward’s rookie deal last offseason, meaning he will make $8.5 million next season. At the moment, only veteran receiver Pierre Garçon is due more money than him (about $9.2 million), but that will most likely change with quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo’s upcoming extension or franchise tag. With the Niners having close to $120 million of cap space this offseason, Ward’s contract isn’t a backbreaker, especially since it’s only a one-year extension, but it does put the team in a tough spot with Reid.
A former first-round pick out of L.S.U., Reid began the year as the starting strong safety, but was knocked off track by a minor knee injury early in the season. Yet even when he returned to full health, the Niners decided to roll with Tart, and move Reid to outside linebacker where he more or less struggled. It wasn’t until Tart and Ward were put on injured reserve that he finally returned to his natural spot, and played some of the best football of his five-year career.
Reid is a free agent, and no doubt one of the best available at his position. But there are two things to consider with him this offseason: (1) how will his ongoing protests against racial injustice during the national anthem impact his market value and (2) are the Niners willing to pay him starter money even though he might be a backup at the start of next season.
It would be misguided to think that his political actions won’t ultimately affect his earning power; the real question is to what extent? Quarterback Colin Kaepernick helped the Niners get to a Super Bowl just a few years ago, and played OK in 2016 despite coming off a multitude of surgeries, playing with a roster nearly devoid of talent and having Chip Kelly as his head coach (*puts hands to face). But when he was released last offseason, not a single team came calling, or even brought him in for a workout. Multiple reports said he was fine serving as a backup, and yet no team bit.
If we assume that every team carries at least one backup, then there were 64 QBs that had a job over Kaepernick. Are there really 64 signal callers in the NFL that were better than him? The answer is no. There might be 20 — heck, there might even be 25 or 30 with the way that Blake Bortles, Case Keenum and Nick Foles played in the playoffs — but there is no reason that Kaepernick should be unemployed if the old “if he can help us win” adage still rings true in the NFL.
The ramifications of Reid’s protest is a topic on its own, but if we look at the probability of him returning to the Niners in a vacuum, it still doesn’t look great. Even though he played extremely well down the stretch, it’s tough to forget that he was buried down the depth chart when Tart and Ward were healthy. Add Colbert into the mix, and his chances of staying in San Francisco only get murkier.
Ward has struggled to stay healthy throughout his four-year career, and he was up-and-down in the seven games he played in last season — he was ranked the No. 77 safety by PFF. Even though he’ll be making more than 15 times what Colbert will, there’s no guarantee that he’ll enter the year as a starter. If the Niners sign Reid to an extension for his market value, they very well could have a pair of $8.5 million players riding the bench with Tart and Colbert starting on their rookie deals.
Reid is versatile, and having depth at a position like defensive back is big. The Niners’ having piles of spending money also works in his favor. But I think Reid’s chances of staying are ultimately slim.
The problem Lynch has at safety entering the spring is the good kind. The one at cornerback is the opposite.
As I wrote in one of my previous columns, I think the Niners should spend some big money to fix the interior of their offensive line. Guards are very important in Kyle Shanahan’s offense, and finding guys that can execute at an elite level in his zone-running scheme is key. Spending cash on an interior offensive lineman is also one of the best bets in free agency.
Bringing in a cornerback on a lucrative deal is a bit trickier. Last offseason A.J. Bouye, Stephon Gilmore, Logan Ryan, Joe Haden and Brandon Carr signed the top five richest cornerback deals of free agency. With the exception of Carr, who will make around $7 million, those players are all set to make upward of $10 million for the next three to five seasons, which means they’ll be paid like they’re one of the best 15 corners in the game.
How many of those players were actually ranked in the top 15 at their position this season? Only two: Bouye (12th) and Gilmore (10th). Both are fine players in their own right, but I don’t think that their talent was the lone determining factor of their success.
Bouye was already a Pro Bowl-caliber talent at Houston, but joining a stacked Jacksonville defense allowed him to really shine. Gilmore struggled a bit at the beginning of the season right alongside the rest of New England’s defense, but he returned to form after the first month of the season under the tutelage of Bill Belichick. Both of those guys were not only solid players when they hit free agency, but they also landed in good spots where they could flourish.
Snagging a touted and highly-regarded cornerback for big money is the easiest way to address a need at the position, but there is definitely risk in the deal. Ryan, Haden and Carr were all average last season, and the three biggest signees from 2016 free agency class, Josh Norman, Janoris Jenkins and Sean Smith, underperformed, too — none were ranked within the top 50 players at their position this season.
It looks like Trumaine Johnson, Malcolm Butler, E.J. Gaines and Patrick Robinson are all going to be up for grabs this offseason, and it would make sense for the Niners to use some of their millions to bring one of them aboard with a big deal. But San Francisco might be better off flooding its roster with possible starters, young and old, rather than bringing in only one guy that is expected to lift the unit to another level.
Philadelphia did this wonderfully last offseason, bringing in four new cornerbacks — one by trade, one through free agency and two from the draft — to fix their woes at the position. San Francisco has nine picks in this year’s draft, and I fully expect Lynch to use one or two on the position with Witherspoon and Williams the lone corners on the roster. The Niners might not make a trade for a corner, but they will without a doubt grab one, two or three guys in free agency. There are several mid-level free agents they could throw in the mix like veterans Brent Grimes, Tramon Williams, Byron Maxwell or Prince Amukamara — to name only a few.
Garoppolo’s brilliance down the stretch has unsurprisingly upped the expectations of what the Niners can be next season, but let’s be realistic: San Francisco is still several pieces away from becoming a bona fide Super Bowl contender. Having an insane amount of cap space does not mean the front office should go all-in on risky massive contracts, and I don’t think they will. I don’t think Lynch and Shanahan are shortsighted, and that was evident when they kept Garoppolo off the field until they felt he was ready play. I think they know that while the Niners might make the playoffs next season, they will still be far away from a finished product no matter what they add this offseason.
I do believe Lynch will make a couple of big splashes — and he should — but I also expect several of the Niners’ moves to leave casual fans scratching their heads and asking themselves “who the hell is this guy?” The Niners are playing the long game, and it’s what they should be doing.
Editor’s Note: In the weeks leading up to NFL free agency, Pajaronian Sports Editor Tony Nunez will dive into the Niners’ roster needs following their 6-10 season.
