Carlos Hyde had arguably the best season of his young career this year. He not only finished 13th in the NFL in rushing yards (938), but he also led the San Francisco 49ers in receptions (59) and touchdowns (8). The fact that he played a complete 16-game season for the first time since entering the league in 2014 is also a big accomplishment for Hyde, who missed time in 14 of 48 games with injuries over his first three seasons.
Despite all of this, Hyde might not return to the Niners next season. He’s a free agent, and one of the best available at his position, too. After Pittsburgh’s Le’Veon Bell, there aren’t many — if any — backs on the market that are better or can do as much as Hyde can. He’s a good enough pass catcher, he runs the inside zone well, and he almost always falls forward for an extra yard or two. Yes, he has struggled with injuries, and, yes, he is still a liability in pass protection. But no other back in free agency is as complete as he is.
I imagine most of you saying “sign him,” closing the tab on your computer and going back to watching whatever streaming show you keep trying to push onto your friends and family — for the last time, guys, stop telling to watch “Game of Thrones,” please. It’s not that simple. Hyde’s future with the team is one of the more complex situations the Niners have this offseason.
Three questions loom: (1) how much will Hyde want? (2) What will be his actual value? (3) What are the Niners’ other options?
It’s tough to say how much Hyde and his agent will demand from general manager John Lynch and Co. when they sit down to negotiate. He was a late second-round pick out of Ohio State, and he signed a four-year deal in the range of $3.5 million, according to Spotrac. With bonuses, he made a little more than a million each of the last two seasons. According to Over The Cap, 33 backs made more than $2 million last season, but only 11 made at least $5 million. My guess is Hyde’s price tag will be in the $5 million range, or somewhere north of there.
There’s an excitement around the team. It’s palatable. Hyde said he wants to be back — he doesn’t want to miss the Super Bowl trip next season (those are his words, not mine). But I don’t think he’ll give the Niners a “hometown discount,” and he shouldn’t. NFL careers are short (3.3 years on average, according to the NFL Players Association), and a running back’s career is even shorter (2.57 years). He should try to make as much money as possible.
His actual value? Well, let’s take a look at what similar backs in similar situations fetched. Cincinnati’s Giovani Bernard was a second-round selection a year before Hyde. He split time in the backfield with multiple backs during his four-year rookie deal. He never ran for more than 730 yards, but averaged at least four yards per carry in three of his four seasons, and was also one of the best receiving options out of the backfield in the NFL during that time. When his deal was up last season, he signed a three-year $15.5 million contract to stay with the Bengals. So it’s safe to say that Hyde, who has back-to-back 900-yard rushing seasons, is at the very least going to match that deal.
Lamar Miller is probably the best comparison for Hyde’s situation. He was a fourth-round pick, and had a pair of promising seasons leading up to his first foray in free agency — Miller ran for 1,099 yards in 2014 and 872 in ’15. Miami, however, decided to let him walk, and Houston scooped him up at $26 million over four years. The Dolphins were in the same spot as the Niners are in now. They had to make a tough call on a good player, and decided to go in another direction because they felt comfortable enough with the guy behind him: Jay Ajayi.
This brings me to the Niners’ other options. Matt Breida looked promising in his rookie season — finishing with 645 yards from scrimmage and three touchdowns in a limited role — but is he the guy that can carry the load for an entire season? The Niners have two other backs under contract other than Breida and Hyde. A fourth-round pick out of Utah, Joe Williams was heavily hyped as the next big thing — the possibility of him unseating Hyde as the starter even arose — before suffering a season-ending ankle injury last September. Do the Niners feel OK with him and Breida splitting carries next season?
Hyde is a known commodity. He is a good to very good player at this point of his career. He will carry a big contract from here on out, but he will not be a question mark like Breida or Williams. That works in his favor, but it doesn’t guarantee that the Niners will bring him back. They not only have Breida and Williams, but four picks in the heart of the draft that they can use on another prospect.
Obviously, the draft is a risk, but there are gems in the later rounds. Of the top 15 rushers in the NFL this season, eight were either selected outside of the top 50 picks of their respective draft or not drafted at all. This year’s leading rusher, Kareem Hunt, was a third round pick playing in his first season. Dalvin Cook, Joe Mixon, Alvin Kamara, Tarik Cohen, Jamaal Williams, Marlon Mack and Hunt were all picked during the second, third and fourth rounds of the 2017 draft — my head still explodes thinking about this.
The Niners will pick ninth or 10th in this year’s draft. Unless Saquon Barkley falls to them, I doubt they will use their first selection on a running back. But that doesn’t mean they won’t pick one later. The Niners have a lot of needs at several “big money” positions, and they have to consider that Jimmy Garoppolo’s longterm deal will limit what they can do in the future. A decade or two ago, bringing back Hyde would have been a no-brainer. But the fact that the Arizona Cardinals found David Johnson with the 86th selection in the 2015 draft, and several other teams have found very good players even later than that, could make Hyde expendable when free agency begins.
