The preseason is over and the games are going to start meaning a little more this weekend.
All six local teams will start league play this week and have a chance to either erase a sour preseason or continue a hot start to the year.
Aptos High and St. Francis High will try to make big splashes in their new leagues, while Watsonville High, Pajaro Valley High, North Monterey County High and Monte Vista Christian have their sights set on cementing themselves as one of the best teams in their league.
Here are my predictions for the three leagues in which our six local teams compete:
MBL-GABILAN DIVISION
One could argue that there are no great teams in the Gabilan this season. Sure, top to bottom, it is still one of the best leagues in the entire Central Coast Section but none of the top dogs of the Gabilan division have played well against outside competition during the preseason. The eight teams from the league finished just 5-8 against teams from over the hill and several of those losses were of the blowout variety. Obviously the graduation of players like Drew Dalman, Emilio Martinez, Hunter Nye, Joey Riccabona, Jack Wolf, Keishawn Robinson and Malik Jeter has hurt the league’s star power but the Gabilan still figures to be highly-competitive this season.
Although Salinas High, Palma High and Aptos all enter with 1-2 records, all three are seemingly in the hunt for the title. Palma, coached by Jeff Carnazzo, is the five-time defending champ and, deservingly so, should be looked as the favorite to win the league for the sixth straight season.
But Salinas, coached by Steve Zenk, should not be taken lightly with a multitude of strong seniors on the massive 82-player roster.
Coached by Randy Blankenship, Aptos won the Santa Cruz Coast Athletic League five years in a row before the league decided to disband for football last December. The Mariners have done well against teams from the Gabilan in recent seasons but have never been able to beat Palma, losing in three consecutive years to the Chieftains.
San Benito, coached by Bryan Smith, also looks like a contender despite, like several other teams from the division, graduating plenty. The Haybalers last year finished runner-up to Palma and have always been known to play the Chieftains tough.
Monte Vista Christian, Seaside High and Alvarez are all dark horses to finish in the top four and secure a CCS playoff berth.
In a league as tight as the Gabilan, the ultimate determining factor will be which team can stay healthy. With that being said, I believe the league championship will be decided on the final week of the season at Trevin Dilfer Field in Aptos. I do not think the Mariners will be in contention for the title at that time of the season but I do think they could play the role of spoiler against Salinas.
This league is extremely tough to predict but I’m taking the Cowboys and Chieftains to tie for the title like they did in 2014.
Prediction:
T-1st. Salinas
T-1st. Palma
3rd. Aptos
4th. San Benito
5th. Seaside
6th. Monte Vista Christian
7th. Alvarez
8th. North Salinas
MBL-PACIFIC DIVISION
I can’t remember the last time the Pacific division had this much talent distributed among the teams. Christopher High and Gilroy High are both undefeated heading into Friday night and, at 3-1, Watsonville is off to its best start since 2009, a year in which the Wildcatz last won a league title. In addition to that trio, Alisal High has shown steady improvement over its preseason and beat Gabilan division member North Salinas High last week.
Coached by Jubenal Rodriguez, Gilroy finished runner-up in the Pacific division last season behind Seaside, which traded places with Christopher in the offseason, and with almost every starter returning has to be considered the favorite to win the title this season. The Mustangs, however, will have to run the gauntlet during the first three weeks of their league season. They start at home against Alisal and then play Christopher and Watsonville in back-to-back games on the road.
The good news for the Mustangs? They will have a bye week after this week’s game to rest up and prepare for what should be their two toughest games of their league season.
Coached by Ron Myers, Watsonville also figures to be a beneficiary of its bye week, scheduling it the week before hosting Gilroy on Oct. 13.
The Wildcatz have a cool month before they play the Mustangs and six weeks before they play the Cougars but they have no time to waste. The underwhelming offensive performance against Irvington High in their preseason finale shows they still have plenty of improvements to be made on that side of the ball. Watsonville’s defense, which has allowed just 14.5 points per game this season, will keep the team in the hunt but the black and gold’s offense needs to hold up its end of the bargain in order for the Wildcatz to compete for the title.
Coached by Tim Pierleoni, pass-happy Christopher could very well knock off Gilroy when the two meet on Oct. 6. The Cougars should also be plenty prepared against Watsonville, as their bye week is scheduled for the Friday before they host the Wildcatz on Oct. 27.
History is also working in Christopher’s favor. The Cougars have never finished under .500 in their two stints in the Pacific division.
Coached by Cesar Chaidez, Alisal is a dangerous team that could stun a contender or two this season. Along with their win over North Salinas last week, the Trojans played last year’s CCS Division IV champion, Soledad High, tightly, losing by only one score.
The top four teams in the division should all be very competitive and the title race, like last season, should come down to the final weeks of the season. The first two weeks of October will be massive but the final two weeks of the regular season should also be entertaining with rivalry games determining the final standings.
In the end, I think the Mustangs will be road warriors and beat Christopher and Watsonville at their respective home fields during the first half of the Pacific division season and cruise the rest of the way.
Prediction:
1st. Gilroy
2nd. Christopher
3rd. Watsonville
4th. Alisal
5th. North Monterey County
6th. Monterey
7th. Pajaro Valley
MTAL-COASTAL DIVISION
The St. Francis High Sharks are back in a local league for the first time since 2012 and they should be the heavy favorites to win the program’s first-ever title this season.
At 3-1, St. Francis, coached by John Ausman, is the lone team in the MTAL-Coastal division, a “C”-rated league, that holds a record above .500 heading into the first week of league play. Soquel sits right at .500 with a 2-2 standing but has not beaten anyone overly impressive in its preseason. The rest of the squads all have only one win or less on the year.
Before the season began Santa Cruz High, coached by Bubba Trumbull, was believed to be one of the top contenders in the league but the Cardinals, who are on bye this week, are 0-4. Still, Santa Cruz should turn out to be one of the better teams in the league after playing both Watsonville and Lincoln High tough in the preseason.
The rest of the league is hard to read. One could make a case that either Greenfield High, Gonzales High or Soquel is the third-best team in the division. The three should all be very competitive amongst themselves, while also having the ability to upset St. Francis or Santa Cruz should one of them come in overconfident.
Marina High and Harbor High, meanwhile, should rejoice this season, as it seems like one of the two will finally score a league win. Marina has not won a league game since 2015 and Harbor has struck out in league play ever since its upset of Santa Cruz in 2014.
In the past, St. Fran
cis’ has been hamstrung by injuries. This year, the Sharks have plenty of playmakers waiting in the wings and should finally hang a football league championship banner.
Prediction:
1st. St. Francis
2nd. Santa Cruz
3rd. Greenfield
4th. Soquel
5th. Gonzales
6th. Marina
7th. Harbor
